Newton Fund (via Met Office)
Nicholas Klingaman (PI), Andrew Turner (Co-I), Marie-Estelle Demory (Co-I), Pier Liugi Vidale (Co-I), Claudia Stephan (PDRA), Liang Guo (PDRA)
Met Office (UK), Institute for Atmospheric Science (China), Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology
China, water cycle, monsoon, precipitation, modelling
The East Asian summer monsoon is the primary source of rainfall for China. To increase the resilience of regional agriculture, water resources and infrastructure to natural and anthropogenic changes in the monsoon, we must advance understanding and prediction of monsoon variability across scales, from daily extremes caused by synoptic systems to inter-decadal variations driven by coupled modes of variability.
The DREAM project aims (1) to identify the present-day large-scale drivers of East Asian hydrological variability across temporal scales, and assess their predictability; (2) to identify regional and local sources of moisture for the East Asian hydrological cycle, and understand how large-scale drivers influence these sources of moisture; (3) to assess the ability of contemporary climate models to simulate the key drivers of East Asian hydrological variability, including the impact of coupled-model systematic errors and (4) to identify the key processes that climate models must include to reliably simulate East Asian hydrological variability and its drivers.
The DREAM project has produced recommendations for model development at the Met Office, as well as for the design of climate services in China, particularly climate services related to the prediction of regional flood and droughts. We have also established collaborations with the Institute for Atmospheric Physics (IAP) in Beijing, particularly on understanding the causes of drought in water-stressed and densely populated North China.